From Setback to Sweep: Democrats’ Big Night in Virginia, New Jersey, NYC, and Beyond

For Democrats, the past 365 days have been exceedingly turbulent. A disastrous 2024 election night has been followed by an unrelenting assault on democracy, unlike any other in American history. Trump’s blatant corruption and power grabs eroded morale and made the Dem’s lack of power apparent. As faith in our institutions waned so did faith in the Democratic party, evidenced by abysmal approval ratings and lagging voter registration numbers. With all 3 branches of government and a “mandate from the people”, little seemed to stand in the way of Trump’s agenda. An authoritarian takeover of the United States was underway. The American Century of Humiliation had begun. 

There was a glimmer of hope for the Democrats however. Republicans managed to shut down the government again, and failed to pin the blame for it on the Dems. Growing murmurs of economic turmoil were exacerbated by SNAP funding cuts and Trump’s penchant for gaudy remodels. Members of the seemingly united Republican front began to split off, breaking with the Trump administration’s messaging in very public ways. Momentum had started to shift, or at least it felt that way. The only way to confirm it was to win some key races in 2025, the first referendum on Trump 2.0. 

And confirm it they did. 

The above picture only hints at how impressive the night was for Democrats. They also picked up 13 seats in the Virginia House of Delegates, including HD 66, a Trump +8.5 county in 2024 and home to 35 year incumbent Bobby Orrock, a Republican. The double victory in Georgia marks the first time the Democratic Party has won a non-federal statewide race in nearly 20 years. Jay Jones outperformed Kamala Harris a month after text messages detailing the hypothetical death of a GOP lawmaker leaked. Pick a district, pick a race, and more than likely you'll see a Democrat overperforming. In an attempt to illustrate the full scope of how massive this election night was for the Democrats, let's go state-by-state and break down the results.

Virginia

(Governor, Lt. Governor, Attorney General, State Legislature)

With several important seats up for grabs and a redistricting fight on the horizon, Virginia was arguably the most important state in this set of off-year elections. Democrats looked to have the upper hand, with strong polling numbers headed into the last month of the campaign. Abigail Spanberger led Republican Winsome Earle-Sears by 10 points in the governor’s race, while fellow Democrats Ghazala F. Hashmi (Lt. Governor) and Jay Jones (Attorney General) held 6-point leads over their challengers going into October. After Jones leaked text messages caused controversy, the race began to look a lot shakier. Was divisive/inflammatory rhetoric from a candidate disqualifying in the big 2025?

Apparently not. Though polling had the Attorney General's race as a last minute toss-up, Jay Jones enjoyed a comfortable margin of victory at +5.8. In fact, all of the candidates overperformed their polling estimates. Hashmi won by 10.7 points, and Spanberger dominated with a 14.6 point spread. This domination spread down the ballot, as (at least) 13 seats in the Virginia House of Delegates flipped from R to D, taking the Democrat advantage from 51 to 64. 90 out of 95 counties in Virginia moved farther left, with voters stating the economy is their biggest concern. It was massive night for the VA Dems, but they weren't the only ones.

New Jersey

(Governor, State Legislature)

In New Jersey, the expectation was that the race for Governor was to be a tight one. Democratic candidate Mikie Sherrill was facing a tough opponent in Republican Jack Ciattarelli. Ciattarelli had lost a close race to then-Democratic incumbent Phil Murphy back in 2021, and he was back now that Murphy had been term-limited. Sherrill hammered Ciattarelli on his connections to Trump, and Ciattarelli leaned in, saying he would give Trump's second term an "A" grade during a debate. With a +3.3 lead in the polls, Sherrill and Democrats were hoping to eek out wins that would retain not only the Governor's office, but their 52 seats in the State Assembly.

Democrats got everything they wanted and more. Sherrill blew expectations out of the water, winning by a decisive 13.3 points. Not only did they retain their seats in the State Assembly, Democrats flipped at least 3 of them, gaining a supermajority for the first time since 2019. Some races are still in the air, but there's potentially 4 more seats that'll turn D, including in New Jersey's 25th district, where the races were expected to be comfortable Republican wins. In fact, no Democrat has won a seat in the 25th district since 1970. In Trump's first official referendum, that "A" Ciattarelli boasted seemed to be nothing more than delusions.

New York City

(Mayoral)

This race was the most publicized and also the most certain. Zohran Mamdani rocketed into the national spotlight as a fresh new face in the political sphere. His focus on affordability, mastery of social media, and strong, consistent messaging resonated with voters and propelled him to an upset win over former Governor Andrew Cuomo in this summer's Democratic Primary. Undeterred, Cuomo decided to run in the general as an Independent, setting the stage for another showdown that was viewed by many as a battle between the Old Guard of the Democratic Party and the New. Despite some reservations from party figures such as Chuck Schumer, Mamdani became the clear front runner after the primary and polling had him as a +14.3 favorite.

Notably one of the few Democrats to underperform their polling expectations, Mamdani comfortably won the Mayoral race with 50.4% of the vote, an 8.8 point lead over Cuomo. Mamdani ran away with voters under 45, winning roughly 70% of their votes according to exit polling. Whether you view Mamdani as an overhyped progressive who underperformed against an exceedingly weak opposition in a Democratic stronghold, or as the future of the party; one thing is clear. He ran a hell of a campaign. His meteoric rise is impossible to ignore, and both parties will be attempting to make his particular brand of lightning strike twice.

California

(Redistricting)

California voters on approved Proposition 50, a measure that authorizes the state to adopt new congressional‑district maps drawn by the legislature rather than the independent commission, with those maps slated for the 2026, 2028 and 2030 elections. Championed by Gavin Newsom and state Democrats as a response to redistricting efforts by Republicans in states like Texas, Prop 50 is designed to flip up to five Republican‑held U.S. House seats in California.

The lead‑up to the vote was marked by major fundraising and national attention: supporters raised well over $100 million, contending that the measure was critical to preserving Democratic influence in the House, while opponents warned it undermined the non‑partisan redistricting system California implemented in 2010. With around 63–64 % of the vote in favor, the result gave Democrats a significant structural advantage heading into the 2026 midterms and confirmed that being proactive in an ongoing redistricting battle bears fruit.

Other notable results

In Georgia, Peter Hubbard and Alicia Johnson will be the newest members of the state's five-person public utility regulator after earning roughly 60% of the vote. It's the first win for Democrats in a nonfederal statewide office race since 2006 and one where increasing energy costs and dissatisfaction with incumbents were front and center.

Pennsylvania voters retained three state Supreme Court judges that were first elected as Democrats despite millions of dollars in outside spending driven by conservative billionaire Jeff Yass. Democrats also won special elections for a seat on Pennsylvania's Superior Court and a seat on its Commonwealth Court, in addition to sweeping the top "row offices" in Bucks County, electing the county's first-ever Democratic district attorney and defeating an incumbent Republican sheriff in the process.

Mississippi Democrats broke a GOP supermajority in the state Senate after flipping two seats in that chamber with another pickup in the state House. A federal court ordered lawmakers to redraw 14 total House and Senate districts after finding the maps drawn in 2022 discriminated against Black voters.

I can keep going. Whether it's winning back Mayoral races in Connecticut or defeating Moms for Liberty candidates in School Board races across the country, Democrats had an absolutely FANTASTIC night. And it was sorely needed.

There are definitely questions that need answering going into midterms. Was Jay Jones victory an anomaly or are political scandals a thing of the past? Are "establishment" figures on the way out? How are Trump and the GOP going to respond? I could speculate on the answers like so many others. Bitch about lefties overselling Mamdani's win or laugh at the some of the cope coming out of MAGA. But the Pragmatic Papers' creation came in the middle of a downward turn in American history, borne partially out of doomerism about the direction of this country. Rather than provide commentary you can and will hear repeated ad nauseam from a plethora of creators, I'd like to revel in the moment for a bit. Democrats kicked the shit out of Republicans, and for the first time in a while I feel okay about the direction we're headed.

I'll feel even better after the midterms.