Independence day in America, while Ukraine stands alone

Sunday, June 29th, Russia unleashed the largest combined missile and drone attack since the start of the full-scale invasion, firing 537 strike vehicles overnight, including hypersonic Kinzhal missiles, Kalibr cruise missiles, Iskanders, and over 400 drones. While Ukraine managed to intercept over 220 of them, dozens still broke through, hitting cities like Ternopil, Ivano-Frankivsk, Lviv, and Mykolaiv, and killing a Ukrainian F-16 pilot in the process. Russia has begun using “double tap” strikes, waiting for first responders to arrive before hitting the site again, and cluster munitions designed to explode with a delay. According to Kyiv’s military officials, Moscow is doing this deliberately to maximize civilian terror, with 42 dead and over 230 injured in Kyiv alone just this month. And if that wasn’t enough, new satellite imagery revealed that Russia is expanding strategic aircraft production at the Kazan plant for bombers like the Tu-160M and Tu-214s, aiming to produce 28 per year by 2028. Despite sanctions and labor shortages, they’re clearly still preparing for a long and drawn-out war. The ISW confirmed Ukraine is still making tactical gains around Sumy and Chasiv Yar, and so things seem to really be moving back and forth across the front.

On Monday, June 30th, Russian state media began claiming that their forces had managed to capture the village of Dachne, located on the Donetsk–Dnipropetrovsk border. If this claim is true, it would have marked Russia’s first territorial gain in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. Ukrainian military officials quickly denied this claim, and the only evidence I could find online was reposted videos of Russian troops in other regions of Ukraine. Analysts at ISW also confirmed there was no evidence of any Russian control in the oblast. The story seemed entirely fabricated, another attempt by Russia to claim some kind of victory as their summer offensive continues to underperform. This isn't to say fighting isn’t occurring near that region, but based on both my own limited research and ISW’s reporting, there appears to be no supporting evidence for Russia’s claim.

On Tuesday, July 1st, the Trump administration paused the transfer of critical weapon systems already promised to Ukraine, including Patriot interceptors, precision-guided bombs, and air-to-surface missiles used by the F-16s. The Pentagon's current excuse for this backstab is that U.S. stockpiles are running low, that we need them more, because obviously, we are being bombed every night here in major U.S. cities. No, this is more politics, more wins for the growing isolationists here in the United States. This legitimately puts blood on our hands; these weapon systems are crucial as Russia continues to ramp up its missile and drone strikes across Ukraine. These systems could have saved lives, instead, we just continue signaling to the Kremlin that we don't care, that we're on our way out, and Ukraine is going to be on its own unless Europe decides they want to step up.

Wednesday, July 2nd, Russia’s summer offensive continued to grind forward, with gains now coming faster in eastern Ukraine as U.S. military aid dries up. Pokrovsk and Kostiantynivka, two towns that serve as critical logistical hubs, are now facing escalating pressure as Russian forces mass near their flanks. According to Ukrainian commanders, Moscow is deploying small assault teams backed by drones and light vehicles to break through toward the Dnipropetrovsk border. ISW confirmed what many feared: the pause in U.S. weapons is already degrading Ukraine’s ability to strike deep behind enemy lines, and without long-range precision fire, Russia’s logistics are safer, which means this war of attrition just got harder to win without more Ukrainian innovation. DeepState reported that in June alone, Russia captured 556 square kilometers of land, its biggest monthly gain since November, and it’s not going to slow down without lethal aid supplies. They’ve already cut the main road linking Pokrovsk and Kostiantynivka, a major blow, and while Ukraine still holds the towns, less aid means these fights are going to get harder.

Thursday, July 3rd, Trump and Putin spoke for the sixth time since Trump returned to office, and once again, absolutely nothing came of it. According to the Kremlin, Putin made it clear that “Russia will not back down” from its goals in Ukraine, which he continues to frame as eliminating the so-called “root causes” of the war, meaning NATO and Ukraine’s sovereignty. Trump admitted there was “no progress” on a ceasefire and that he’s “not happy” with how things are going, but we should all know this means nothing. If anything, the entire call just emphasized how out of his depth Trump is when it comes to negotiating with leaders, let alone dictators like Putin. Putin didn’t even address the recent pause in U.S. weapons deliveries, likely because it already works in his favor, so why say anything? And despite saying they’ll “keep talking,” nothing in the Kremlin’s readout suggests Russia is interested in peace unless it’s one where Ukraine surrenders.

Friday, July 4th, as Americans celebrated their independence, Russia launched the largest aerial assault of the war. 550 drones and missiles struck homes, schools, and critical infrastructure across Kyiv. The attack briefly knocked out power to the Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant, forcing it onto emergency generators, a target that Russia still claims to avoid. This savage attack came just hours after Trump’s latest call with Putin, which he called "disappointing" and which yielded no movement toward peace. Later that day, Trump spoke with Zelenskyy and agreed to explore joint air defense projects, including interceptor drones that reportedly helped down dozens of Russian Shaheds. The symbolism shouldn’t be missed: on the day Americans mark their fight for freedom, Ukraine continues its fight for that very thing that we take for granted now.

Saturday, July 5th, Ukraine struck back. After enduring days of record-breaking bombardments and political hand-wringing, Ukrainian forces hit the Borisoglebsk airbase deep inside Russia’s Voronezh region, reportedly damaging glide bomb depots and potentially aircraft stationed at one of Russia’s key launch sites for Su-34 and Su-35S sorties. Meanwhile, Russia launched yet another wave of drone terror, firing 322 drones and decoys overnight. Ukraine shot down 157 and electronically jammed another 135. This time, Khmelnytskyi was the main target, but officials report no damage or casualties. In Kyiv, Friday’s death toll rose to 2, with 26 wounded. And in a surprising turn of events, Russia may be about to gain another ally willing to directly join the war on Ukraine, Laos. Around 50 Laotian military engineers are reportedly headed to Kursk Oblast for demining, and while this is a small force, it's symbolic. Russia has many willing to stand by their side, while somehow Ukraine stands alone as the bulwark of the West.