Manipulation and Morale

On Sunday, July 20th, President Zelenskyy announced plans to revive peace talks with Russia, proposing to resume negotiations in Istanbul next week. From what we know so far, the focus will be on establishing a ceasefire, followed as usual by discussions on POW exchanges and the return of abducted Ukrainian children. While previous talks have yielded little, if any, progress, it’s worth noting that these would be the first negotiations since Trump’s recent shift in tone on Russia. With the new sanctions package looming roughly 40 days out, it’s possible Moscow at least shows up just to delay or avoid Trump expediting those measures. Russia still claims it’s pursuing its “goals,” though what those goals actually are continues to shift and remains deliberately vague. Ukraine, meanwhile, seems to understand that even attempting a peace deal buys them time and, at the very least, buys Ukraine time and, at the very least, keeps the Trump administration at bay for now.

It wouldn’t take long to get more information on the proposed peace talks put forth by Zelenskyy on Monday, July 21st. It was confirmed that the sit-down would happen on Wednesday in Istanbul. The Kremlin immediately warned that the two sides hold “diametrically opposed” positions, and there has been zero movement on any real concessions, `only reiterating that Russia’s goals remain unmet. At the same time, Russia continued hammering Ukraine, carrying out yet another massive drone and missile strike. Once again, we must recognize that one side of this war continues to reject any real path toward peace. Moments like this must be seared into your mind, so that when someone claims Ukraine isn’t trying, you remember exactly what happened. Ukraine proposed talks. Russia responded by issuing new demands and launching mass strikes later that same day. Russia will not stop in Ukraine, and moments like this should be all the reminder you need of that fact.

On Tuesday, Ukraine witnessed something that hadn’t happened since the war began: mass protests against President Zelenskyy himself. Thousands gathered in Kyiv, civilians and soldiers alike, all furious over a new law passed by Parliament (and quickly signed by Zelenskyy) that strips independence from the key anti-corruption agencies previously approved by the EU. To many in Ukraine, this felt like a stab in the back. These agencies were designed to be independent, with the explicit purpose of targeting corruption across the nation without interference, something that was required to be implemented if Ukraine wished to make it into the EU.

Zelenskyy says the reason for gutting these agencies is that they’re supposedly full of Russian agents, which is what he told the country in one of his nightly addresses. Whether that’s true or not, almost doesn’t matter. Ukrainians know how important these anti-corruption agencies are if they wish to continue their goal of being taken seriously on the global stage. They’d rather fix what’s broken than throw the whole system out. That says a lot. Honestly, I wish more Americans thought that way. Here in the U.S., some have tried to dismantle entire institutions like the DOJ over isolated misconduct claims. It’s a reckless move, and it feels like Ukrainians see that kind of thinking for what it is, even better than we do sometimes.

These protests also, of course, sadly drew the attention of American officials looking to hijack them and paint them into their own narrative. Marjorie Taylor Greene took to Twitter to claim the protests themselves were “anti-war” and had some desire to throw Zelenskyy out of office. This is obviously untrue. To me, this moment again just solidified Ukraine as a nation to look up to. The vast majority of those protesting did not, in fact, call for Zelenskyy’s removal; they simply wished to keep him in check. This unity in a time of war is something I could not even fathom. Personally, I would be afraid of holding my government in check during such a time, simply because I would fear bad actors hijacking the movement to sow division. But the Ukrainian people continue to be concrete in their resolve, and again, I am at a loss for words for their dedication. 

On Wednesday, July 23rd, the long-anticipated third round of peace talks in Istanbul finally took place, but as expected, almost nothing of substance came from it. The meeting ended in under an hour. Ukraine’s delegation, led by former Defense Minister Rustem Umerov, offered up what seemed like a serious proposal: a ceasefire, prisoner exchanges, and even a summit between Zelenskyy and Putin, with Trump and Erdoğan in attendance. Russia dismissed the summit idea, insisting it should only follow a finalized agreement. They instead floated a laughable “solution”: a series of brief ceasefires, just long enough to collect bodies off the battlefield. It’s hard to believe anyone is still acting surprised when Russia continues to treat diplomacy like performance art. The one concrete thing agreed upon was a prisoner swap: 250 for 250 immediately, with plans for over 1,200 more. And while that’s not nothing, it’s also not peace.

For Thursday, July 24th, I’ll be going over ISW’s Russian Occupation Update, which spent a large portion of it covering just how bad things are getting in Russian-occupied Ukraine. In Donetsk, the first signs of a water crisis are beginning to show. Reservoirs are drying up, pipelines and infrastructure are failing because obviously, Russia is not interested in building up the land they’ve stolen, and it’s creating real issues on the ground. Civilians in the area are struggling to access clean water, with reports ranging from drinking water being scarce to entire towns no longer having access to even working toilets. Yet again, and in an odd way, this should reveal Russia’s strategy here because there isn’t one. What good will these towns and cities be when they lack the fundamental ability to maintain, let alone construct, basic infrastructure?

This same report also covers the increasing practice of shipping off children from the occupied regions to summer camps and “University Shift” programs deep in Russia, with courses such as weapon handling, drone piloting, and loyalty training to the Russian state. Even back in the occupied territories, we’re seeing the approval of textbook replacements, initial steps toward rewriting history and indoctrinating the population into the Russian state. This is what ethnic cleansing looks like. For Russia, the war isn’t over until the Ukrainian people are erased, and that doesn’t always require death camps.

Friday, July 25th. While most of us in America enjoyed watching the public breakup between Donald Trump and Elon Musk and maybe even breathed a sigh of relief that this clown was out of our government, it’s important to remember he remains a threat to democracy across the globe. A Reuters investigation revealed that during Ukraine’s September 2022 counteroffensive to retake Kherson, Musk personally ordered Starlink coverage to be shut off across parts of the front. The move left Ukrainian troops blind: drones went dark, long-range artillery lost targeting capabilities, and the encirclement of Russian positions in Beryslav failed. Sources inside Starlink and the Ukrainian military confirm that over a hundred terminals were deactivated at Musk’s command, allegedly due to his fear that a successful Ukrainian push might provoke nuclear retaliation from Russia. This marks the first documented case of Musk leveraging his control over critical battlefield infrastructure to influence the course of a war. Despite previous public denials, Musk tweeted in March, “We would never do such a thing.” It’s now clear he did exactly that. With over 50,000 Starlink terminals in use by Ukraine’s military, the incident highlights a multitude of potential issues with an overreliance on the whims of CEOs and private tech to fight a war.

Saturday, July 26th, The latest ISW report lays out Russia’s increasing use of missile and drone barrages as part of a shifting strategy to break Ukrainian morale. After months of relying primarily on drones, Russia is now mixing in more ballistic and cruise missiles, launching coordinated overnight strikes across Ukrainian cities like Dnipro and Kharkiv. Over 200 drones and 27 missiles were fired in just one night. ISW analysts warn that if current trends continue, Russia could launch 2,000 drones in a single night by November. This escalation is only possible because of surging domestic production. Russia isn’t slowing down, it’s scaling up. Ukraine’s Western allies are attempting to respond: Lithuania committed €30 million toward Patriot air defense systems, and Germany is providing additional IRIS-T systems, radar tech, and support for Ukrainian production. Yet one line from the report stuck with me: Russia is targeting cities not just to destroy but to manipulate; this is psychological warfare. Their goal is to erode Ukrainian morale and convince civilians their resistance is futile, and while it is up to the Ukrainian people to fight, we need to provide more, we need to do more.