The Venezuelan Response

Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth has made waves recently for his double tap on supposed narco drug trafficking boats. He has tried to shift the blame onto Admiral Frank “Mitch” Bradley, but doesn’t help his case as Hegseth continues to strike boats after replying to yes men on twitter. This is part of an overall rise in hostility against the Venezuelan state, beginning to raise suspicion of a major military operation against the Latin American country. 

Starting in the early fall, the US began ramping up its military presence in the Caribbean and began the infamous boat strikes. On the 29th of November, Trump warned that the airspace around Venezuela should be considered closed, but has not taken any steps to ensure a no fly zone. He has been warning of action “soon” against the state, and said he believes Maduro’s “days are numbered”. 

Despite the strikes being against US and international law, and polls finding that most would oppose direct military action, many Venezuelans in America support the efforts. Regime change, to them, is the ultimate goal of these escalations, something they await with fervor. “We’ve marched” a source told Newsweek. “Nothing changed”. 

Long overdue

Nearly 770 thousand Venezuelans live in America, with a fifth of those concentrated in Florida. And in Doral, a suburb in Miami, live 27 thousand of them. Doral has the highest concentration of Venezuelans in the country, and many there see Trump and Rubio’s promise of toppling Maduro as a godsend. Legal protections and the termination of Temporary Protection Status (TPS) have led to many fearing their immigration status, but still hold desperately to the belief that Trump will save their country. As long as Maduro is gotten rid of, all will be forgiven. 

Trump’s anti-socialism message resonates with the Cuban and Venezuelan residents of Miami, which surged red in 2024 as a result. Many of the older immigrants come from these countries, destroyed by bad policies, wishing for a better future. They are attracted to right wing messaging that validates their hatred of socialism like no other party could. In 2024, 60% of Doral voted for Trump, and they even made the MAGA classic, “We will vote for Donal Trom”.

Many Venezuelan immigrants who came in the 2000s wave, escaping Hugo Chavez, were well off. They were doctors, lawyers, people with means to establish themselves in the community and integrate seamlessly with the Republican party. Their hatred of Chavismo, Chavez’s brand of socialism, is rooted in their identity as refugees. 

When Chavez’s protege, Nicolas Maduro, caused his economic crisis, yet another wave of Venezuelan migrants moved to the US. Refugees fled the hyperinflation and collapsing economy. Desperate to escape, they relied on TPS rather than visas. These working class migrants began working in fields like construction or food service, making the backbone of South Florida’s service industry. 

Though the generations can clash with each other, with older generations seeing the newcomers as uneducated and supportive of the regime. Younger generations, who have had their protection statuses slashed and immigration status up in the air, remain skeptical of Trump and his promises. 

The two, however, seem to agree on drastic regime change action in Venezuela. The mood is generally tense, seeing politicians as all talk and no action. Venezuelan migrants in the US are clear - They want drastic action against the Venezuelan state. They see the promises of the GOP of regime change as empty promises. Sanctions and strong words have done nothing. But whether this means forceful action needs to take place seems to divide the generations. 

Some, usually older, Venezuelans, see force as the only option. Elliot Abrams wrote for Foreign Affairs and laid it out succinctly - “Why regime change is the only way forward in Venezuela”. 

Others, usually younger generations, see democratization as an avenue of change, fearing the potential devastation a war could bring to Venezuela. 

Adelys Ferro, a Venezuelan activist for migrant rights, told Yahoo news she doubts Trump’s intentions. "In the midst of our desperation and desire for freedom, we have minimized what a war means," she said. She favors using the current tensions as leverage, to peacefully force Maduro into beginning a democratization process for the country. 

This does not mean, however, that MAGA has lost the Venezuelans. There are many who support him, and see the immigration and ICE crackdowns as simply a negative. As long as he gets rid of Maduro, anything goes. Andrea Gonzalez, another person interviewed by Yahoo news, said it best. 

"The same people who have been deported wouldn't hate him so much if he achieved that [Overthrowing Maduro],". 

The Right Flank

As Venezuelans urge Trump to do more about Maduro, some on the America First side of the right wing has begun clashing in their messaging. America First sees the escalation as a betrayal of their non-interventionist values. Their name is America First, after all. 

Right wing Venezuelans see the issue differently. Lourdes Ubieta, a Venezuelan-born conservative radio host in Miami, told the Washington Post, “When you think of America First, you need to think of national security first, and the Venezuelan regime is a threat to our national security,”. 

Ubieta, alongside Elliot Abrams, do not see the need for US boots on the ground. They know US lives lost would lead to a catastrophic loss of support. Instead, that remains as a last resort, seeing airstrikes as the key pragmatic solution. No country has ever had a regime toppled through airstrikes alone, however. Thus, according to Abrams, leveraging the strikes alongside negotiations could convince Maduro to step down. 

Non intervention is the cornerstone of America First. When Trump bombed nuclear sites in Iran, it showed a split in the base, with many America First style influencers disapproving of the strikes. Republican strategist Steve Cortes said, “While Maduro creates instability for America … by no means is this some imminent threat that we have to take serious, tangible action to depose him…” Marjorie Taylor Greene tweeted out against regime change in Venezuela, in the midst of her feud with the majority MAGA base. 

These cracks in the MAGA armor seem to rise more and more. And while Hegseth coyly kills more innocent people to look cool on X, support for these antics could be dwindling in the rise of the more populist, nationalistic movement. As these factions drift further apart, the tension is beginning to rise in the party. Pro-Regime change Venezuelan conservatives are unlikely to yield ground, and America First influencers, energized by a growing populist skepticism of foreign entanglements, are unwilling to compromise. If Trump continues down a path that appears interventionist, he risks alienating a vocal portion of his base that sees any regime change actions as a betrayal of his America First values. But if he backs off, he risks angering the very Latino conservatives who have proven crucial to his political coalition in Florida and beyond. Though with his deployment of ICE to different cities as a show of force against illegal immigrants, one could argue which way he is leaning. 

Trump is simply unlikely to truly care about this outcome. Whether he is posturing like this to seem like a tough strongman or to distract from the Epstein files is anyone’s guess. However, he is unlikely to seriously follow through on efforts to depose Maduro. While backing off could hurt his ego, he wouldn’t dare risk American lives in a ground war against the country, nor does it seem like he cares at all about the Venezuelans that won him Miami. 

Venezuelans, for now, still mostly support Trump, despite taking away their protected status and deporting many of them. But as tensions escalate with Venezuela, it could rise as a result of his strong actions, or decrease if Americans begin losing their lives, or the escalations yield no results. For better or worse, Venezuelans still have Trump’s back.