Ukraine Under Pressure: The Stakes of the Alaska Summit

Over the past two weeks, the Russia–Ukraine war has entered a volatile new phase, with Russian forces launching a surprise offensive near Dobropillia, intensifying strikes across Donetsk, and ramping up drone and missile production. While Kyiv scrambles to plug the holes on the front lines, the clock ticks toward an August 15th meeting between Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin in Alaska. Military analysts say the timing is calculated: Moscow is driving forward now to dictate the terms of peace before talks even begin. In the past 14 days, Russian troops have cut supply lines, forced evacuations in contested towns, and opened new pressure points along the Donetsk front. The question for Ukraine is whether Western support will hold firm if the diplomatic tides turn in Russia’s favor.

Russia's recent offensive

The sudden push on August 12 involved Russian troops advancing between 10 and 17 kilometers near Dobropillia, threatening to encircle towns such as Pokrovsk and Kostyantynivka. Ukraine promptly deployed reinforcements to counter the infiltration, which analysts say is designed to exert pre-summit pressure, although opinions are split on whether or not Russia plans on holding that land. Open-source intelligence from DeepState and ISW shows Russian assault groups infiltrating front-line villages—Kucheriv Yar, Zolotyi Kolodiaz, Vesele—and pushing toward the Dobropillia–Kramatorsk highway, endangering key supply routes. While Ukrainian forces confirmed that small Russian units had breached defenses near Dobropillia, they denied any substantial breakthrough. "They are without equipment, only weapons in their hands. Some have already been found, partly destroyed, partly captured. We will find and destroy the rest in the near future," said Zelenskyy.

Drone strikes and logistical pressure

This recent offensive was preceded by drone strikes aimed at Ukrainian ground-lines-of-communication (GLOCs), especially along the Dobropillia–Lyman highway. The goal? To throw a wrench in Ukraine’s response by forcing them to take alternative roads and further stretch the capabilities of Ukraine’s GLOCs. Ukraine’s defenses rely on a steady flow of supplies, equipment, and reinforcements, and any disruption to that system cripples the Ukrainian response. The result? A strengthened negotiating position for Russia at a key point in the war. 

Ukraine hasn’t been purely on the defensive however. Beyond tactical assaults, Ukraine has launched deep strikes inside of Russia, hitting Shahed drone storage depots in Tatarstan—approximately 1,300 km from the frontlines—twice within days: on August 9 and again on August 12. These strikes targeted warehouses holding drones and foreign components, aiming to disrupt Moscow’s drone supply chain.

On August 12th/13th, Russia unleashed 49 Shahed strike drones and decoy UAVs, plus two ballistic missiles, targeting regions including Donetsk, Sumy, and Poltava. Ukraine intercepted or suppressed 34 of these targets, but 17 drones still hit 15 locations and details are still coming out about how much damage was inflicted. In the leadup to the August 15th summit, both sides are jockeying for diplomatic position and neither side is backing down. 

A meeting in Anchorage

The August 15th summit in Alaska is the first U.S. hosted full meeting between the leaders since 1988. While the White House claims the meeting is a “listening exercise”, critics warn that Trump is attempting to negotiate without Ukraine at the table, undermining U.S. credibility and European cohesion. Reports suggest Trump floated territorial swaps in Ukraine, implying Kyiv might have to cede land to achieve peace . Zelenskyy and European leaders such as Emmanuel Macron have pushed back on this, insisting Ukraine must be fully involved in negotiations and that international borders cannot be redrawn by force.

Trump’s approach has raised alarms among security experts. Analysts from CSIS and the Atlantic Council warn that bypassing Ukraine risks rewarding Russian aggression, weakening deterrence, and undermining long-term peace. The downfalls of appeasement may be a lesson world leaders are doomed to learn for the rest of time. 

As the summit approaches, Moscow is clearly attempting to leverage battlefield pressure into political gain. Ukraine remains under strain, navigating a war of attrition while hoping Western support holds firm. Meanwhile, Trump’s summit strategy faces intense scrutiny, and for good reason. He’s been soft on Russia from the start, even if he insists the opposite is true. The diplomatic steps taken could embolden Russia to invade again in the future, and every indication shows us Putin definitely would. These next few days are crucial for the future of Ukraine, and I couldn’t think of a worse person to try and usher that in.