Digital Ground Game April Midterm Report

How resignations are expanding the map

This April, Digital Ground Game is using our monthly Midterms Report to shine a light on some promising districts whose incumbents are among the growing number of retiring Republicans.

With polls worsening for republicans, many elected officials are determining that their midterm prospects are insurmountable and would rather retire than risk defeat. The loss of incumbent advantage, in addition to the trends of democratic swings in special elections, brings many previously ignored congressional districts into potential viability. 

The sheer number of races in the midterms can be overwhelming for the casual observer, so we want to present some interesting races to watch that have been affected by a retiring Republican incumbent. While the likelihood of the Democratic candidate winning in these districts varies, they all have a feasible pathway to victory and will be worth monitoring this election season. 

Montana 1

While much of the reporting on this race is fairly negative, recent moves by state officials, paired with new polling, suggest a much less certain outlook for Republicans. Incumbent congressman Ryan Zinke announced at the beginning of March that he would be retiring in order to address injuries he sustained during his time as a Navy Seal ^[1], but some political experts suspect internal polling contributed to the decision ^[2]. Following Zinke’s retirement press release, his former state director and ‘Montana Talks’ radio host, Aaron Flint, announced he would be running for the seat. This move led to a swift circling of the Republican wagons, from state congressmen to Trump himself, endorsing Flint for the role ^[3]. 

Montana 1’s population is generally fairly red, with Democrats not having seen a win in the district since the mid 90’s: however, it’s first congressional district contains some notable bluer population centers like Missoula and Bozeman, leading to much closer races. During the 2022 congressional race, the democratic candidate, Monica Tranel, lost to Zinke by less than a ten thousand vote margin ^[4]. Considering the sizable leftward swings we are seeing in special election trends, it isn't unreasonable to conclude that this seat is within reach, given some coaxing from the Democratic Party.  

With primaries looming at the beginning of June, the roster of Democratic candidates looks quite promising.

U.S. Army veteran Matt Rains continues his family’s long history of ranching in Montana and  even opened the first rancher owned meat packaging co-op; Rains wants to enter Congress with a focus on strengthening veterans’ rights, protecting public lands, and expanding rural infrastructure ^[5].

After his time in the Navy, Russell Cleveland has had a wide variety of careers from banking to building multi-family affordable housing, to helping launch a universal pre-k program; driven by his late daughter, Cleveland takes a more progressive platform around Medicare for all and touts the fact he doesn't take corporate PAC money noting that he is “loyal to the people not a party” ^[6].

Despite his loss in the governor's race, former firearms executive Ryan Busse’s name recognition could prove useful in his run for this seat; Busse takes an aggressive stance against big business meddling in Montana’s public lands and has notably been one of the most directly outspoken about incumbent Ryan Zinke’s time in Congress ^[7].

While this race is still considered a long shot, the coalescing of events occurring here leads us to see it as an underdog with a navigable path to victory given a savvy candidate and a little luck.  If you prefer a less optimistic view, in the worst case scenario, Montana 1 is a low investment race that forces the GOP to spend more than they otherwise would to hold a seat in one of their “safe” states.

Texas 23

Keeping up with this race has been chaotic and nothing if not entertaining, but hiding beneath the scandals and headlines lies an underappreciated shot at a seat. After the reveal of his affair with a staffer that ended in her suicide, incumbent Tony Gonzales finally announced he would be dropping out of the race. The process of getting Gonzales to this announcement was anything but simple, his participation in the republican primary ended in the need for a run-off election, which had already occurred before congressional leadership expediting an ethics investigation appeared to push the sitting representative over the edge ^[8]. The remaining GOP candidate, gun YouTuber Brandon Herrera, released a statement thanking Gonzales for “making the appropriate decision”. Despite republican sighs of relief at the long overdue resignation, a recent DCCC press release delightedly highlights the over half a million dollars invested into Gonzales’s primary campaign ^[9]. While Herrera received less funding from the GOP so far, his notoriety as a YouTuber has largely made up for this as his donations have vastly outpaced his democratic party counterpart. Incoming stories to watch team Herrera’s response to are the controversies surrounding multiple resurfacing videos of the candidate; while the severity of these videos varies, whether or not democrats can effectively raise the salience of these issues with voters could turn out to be a real factor in this race^[10].

Texas 23 has become notably more challenging, having been redistricted to be redder since its most recent Democratic win in 2012, when it was considered a purple district. The trends in the margin of victory here are certainly daunting, as they seem to double in vote count each election since 2018, but the recent primaries ahead of this year’s midterm race saw Democrats with a lead of about 10,000 votes ^[11]. The scandals surrounding Republicans of Texas 23, in addition to the population hubs of suburban San Antonio and El Paso, the path to victory here could just be energizing the base. 

The democratic nominee for this race is deceptively strong and hasn't been getting nearly the credit she should be if we want to put her strengths as a candidate to full effect. Katy Padilla Stout came from humble beginnings in a single parent household. She began her professional career as a teacher, later returning to school to earn her law degree, which she now uses to advocate for children and families at her family law firm. Padilla Stout’s policy platform is reasonably pragmatic and largely stems from her strong family values as a mother of four. Her gun policies are likely to be attacked by Herrera once the race really kicks off but the reality of them is quite moderate. Her strong message around family combined with her reasonable  policy line has a good chance to win back the large Latino population in the district. ^[12]

Texas 23 is a race that will require more investment than has been offered so far if we want to win it but this is by no means a lost cause. Herrera is something of a chaos agent in this race as many elements of his biography could turn out to be either a major boon or an iceberg waiting to sink his campaign. Representative Gonzales’ popularity within the district is something many credit to his position as a more moderate voice in the republican party ^[13], assuming that holds true this fall, Katy Padilla Stout may be the more appealing candidate to many.

California 48 

California’s 48th is one of the districts more aggressively altered by the Prop 50 ballot measure passed last fall to counter Texas’s redistricting ^[14]. Although he previously asserted he would be running to retain his seat, Republican incumbent Darrell Issa seemingly had a change of heart, announcing shortly after the registration deadline that he wouldn't be running ^[15]. Representative Issa has a sizable history in elected office, but notably announced his retirement before the 2018 blue wave when it seemed clear he would lose his seat. Since his return Issa has been seemingly uninterested in running outside of safe seats ^[16]; with this pattern in mind, his heel turn announcing retirement isn't exactly shocking. The replacement candidate now holding Issa’s endorsement is San Diego County supervisor Jim Desmond ^[17]. While Desmond has some degree of name recognition due to his previous public office positions, it's unclear to what degree that will help his race in Cal 48 this fall.

The changes to the district as a result of Prop 50 are leading many to feel optimistic about California 48; a two pronged approach was taken, cutting out some of the more rural areas in the southwest while expanding north in order to include more portions of San Diego and Palm Springs ^[18]. The inclusion of more urban areas within the district makes it an even more appealing and cost effective choice for canvassing. For those interested, we’ll include a link to a slider map that shows the changes made by Prop 50 ^[19].

While California’s primary system consists of a non-partisan free for all where the top two candidates, regardless of affiliation, move on to the general election. District 48’s makeup makes the event of a double democrat general unlikely. With the early June primary approaching, it’ll be important to get a feel for the democratic roster on offer here.

Former Obama administration official and the current democratic front runner in the polls, Ammar Campa-Najjar, has decent local name recognition and an impressive resume working in government and as a U.S. Navy Reserve officer; His policy platform is mostly the standard democratic party line with some emphasis on supporting veterans, but his website isn't overly specific about his plans in Congress ^[20].

As a highly educated, trained economist, Brandon Riker touts his credentials as something underrepresented in a congressional body oversaturated with lawyers; with a Ro Khanna endorsement combined with his career history, it’s no surprise that Riker’s policy line takes a progressive flavor with an economic focus, and the ‘issues’ tab of his campaign website is quite detailed ^[21].

San Diego City councilmember and attorney, Marni von Wilpert’s experience in policy writing specifically serves as a strong resume for a congressional run; found on her campaign site is a list of the ordinances and projects von Wilpert has worked on in city council and a plan to bring similar ideas to Congress ^[22].

The major changes made to California’s 48th last fall have made us quite optimistic about the chances of this being a relatively simple democratic pickup. The primary candidates on offer allow the district’s voters choices that span the Democratic Party’s ideological spectrum, all of whom are eminently qualified for the role, and the Republicans clearly recognize that as a threat to their hold over the seat.

Nebraska 2

Representative Don Bacon of Nebraska’s second district, in many ways, could be called a man left behind by his party; although his public image isn't especially antagonistic to the Trump administration, his legislative record shows a man grasping tightly to many pre-MAGA conservative ideals. The press release announcing Bacon’s retirement last June ^[23] was a bog-standard “I’ve served long enough” line but the increasing pressure applied to those who buck the administration, paired with a worsening chance of retaining his seat, couldn't have made staying in the race appealing. The lone Republican now vying to fill the seat is Omaha city council VP Brinker Harding, who appears to be running on a fairly hard line immigration message ^[24]. Harding has the endorsement of Rep. Bacon, but it seems unlikely such a message will really resonate with the people of Nebraska’s “blue dot” district.

It’s no surprise that Nebraska 2 is the state’s “blue dot”, with a population distribution of nearly 98% urban residents ^[25]. While Rep. Bacon has held the district as a moderate republican since 2018, NE 2 otherwise votes democrat by around a 3 point margin. The thrust of the population comes from the inclusion of the majority of the Omaha Council Bluffs metropolitan area. Although Digital Ground Game isn't currently planning one, the heavily urban nature of the district makes Nebraska 2 a strong choice for a canvassing operation.

The increasing prospect of a blue wave and Don Bacon finally stepping down has resulted in a chumming effect, creating a democratic primary race saturated with candidates ^[26]. Although they all certainly have much to offer, for the sake of readability, I’m keeping our candidate roundup to the 3 frontrunners consistently shown in the polls^[27].

Front runner and Nebraska state legislator, John Cavanaugh has a record in state congress to run on and a masters degree in environmental policy to back up his expertise; Cavanaugh is running on the “affordability” playbook that's been popular recently but in his ‘issues’ tab (labeled “fighting for the next gen” on his site) he gets into much more specific plans than I've seen other candidates present while running this strategy ^[28]. It’s unclear whether this will be a factor, but his father served as the representative for NE 2 in the 70s and 80s, which could support his bona fides given his  history in the district.

Boasting 20 years of public service primarily in elected offices, Crystal Rhoades is the more progressive option on the democratic roster; Rhoades lists her accomplishments in previous offices with an intention to bring similar aims to the U.S. Congress, she’s confident in her ability to operate with the establishment as necessary without relying on them ^[29].

Fed up with corporate America, former communications and PR executive Denise Powell returned home to Nebraska, determined to make a difference for everyday Americans. Powell co-founded Women Who Run Nebraska, a non-profit that recruits and supports women who run for office in Nebraska. Her website displays an extensive policy platform that comes across as pragmatic but determined to push back against the Trump administration ^[30].

Nebraska 2 is the district on our list most likely to flip to democrats by a landslide. The constituents’ existing proclivity for the Democratic Party, despite holding on to Don Bacon, makes it a pretty extreme uphill battle for Brinker Harding, the republican candidate. Adding to the existing circumstances, the extreme clustering of the district’s population make it an easy target for canvassing groups to give the race an extra push to err on the side of caution.

Closing Thoughts and Call to Action

Hopefully, we at the digital ground game research team have given you some new races to watch. We will be holding a fundraising stream with Destiny on April 10th from 1pm to 9pm EST So, be sure to tune in. If you are interested in helping out to fight back in these midterms visit our website and join our Discord, where you’ll be able to see upcoming events in your area. Keep an eye out for future midterm reports as we plan to provide exciting event updates in future editions.