Digital Ground Game May Midterm Report

A scattershot collection of political news stories 

This May, Digital Ground Game is using our monthly Midterms Report to present a veritable bouquet of stories from elections to finances to future plans for our organization. Part of our goal in this month’s formatting is to float a trial balloon for a more diverse flavor profile in our reporting; in the spirit of said trial balloon, reader feedback is very much appreciated this month, especially. To do so, feel free to join the Discord on our website linked above.

State Highlight: Ohio

Despite its fairly red population, Ohio, like most states, is seeing a notable shift away from the Republican Party in polling ^[1]. These trends, along with their position as a bellwether state ^[2] have lent Ohio’s midterm elections an increased national spotlight. All these factors, along with the imminent May 5th primaries, contributed to our choice of Ohio as this month’s highlighted state.

Governor

Incumbent governor Mike DeWine ends his third term this year, term-limiting him from participating in the upcoming race. While incumbency generally offers an electoral advantage, DeWine’s atrocious job approval ratings make it less clear whether that would have been a factor here ^[3]. If the poor perception of DeWine’s work as governor pushes voters away from the Republican Party, we could see a significant opportunity for the Democratic candidate to win this race. Current polling aggregates are rating the race as a toss-up ^[4] but the movement of polls over the past year shows a promising trend ^[5].

Vivek Ramaswamy - R

The presumed republican nominee is the ever polarizing Vivek Ramaswamy, having received the endorsement of the retiring governor ^[6] in addition to the majority of the national Republican leadership ^[7]. Ramaswamy has held a presence in right-wing politics as a commentator for quite a while but his resume of actual governance is unimpressive to say the least having quit his leadership role at DOGE in the first week of Donald Trump’s second term ^[8]. Despite his party’s endorsement, Vivek’s history of dubious money making strategies ^[9]offer myriad angles of attack on a campaign trail making him a fairly risky candidate to back. Looking at the crosstabs of Emerson College Polling’s Ohio governor survey^[10], while Ramaswamy’s approval among registered Republicans roughly matches Acton’s numbers in the Democratic Party, his unfavourability in his own voter base more than doubles that of his opponent. In addition to his weak bio as a candidate, the policy platform laid out on the Vivek for Ohio campaign site ^[11] is extremely slogan heavy and generally vague. If we want a chance to flip the Ohio Governor’s seat, this race is about as good as we could ask for.

Dr. Amy Acton - D

Unopposed in the democratic primary is Dr. Amy Acton, former director of the Ohio Department of Public Health. Dr. Acton worked multiple jobs to put herself through medical school despite growing up in poverty and even facing homelessness at times. This adversity and direct experience as a member of the working class will allow her to make a compelling case that she actually understands the struggles faced by Ohioans today. In addition to the challenges of her upbringing, she’s also a wife and mother of six children, so she knows firsthand the expenses necessary to raise a family. Having been appointed to the role by the sitting governor DeWine, Amy’s tenure as Director of the Ohio Department of Public Health demonstrated her willingness to put partisanship aside for the sake of the people. While her appointment could be viewed as having bipartisan trust, the events that led to her resignation tell another story; just months after the initiation of the COVID-19 lockdowns, crowds of demonstrators (sometimes armed) protested her every decision from directly outside her home ^[12]. Vivek’s labeling of Dr. Acton as “Ohio’s Anthony Fauci” could turn out to be a compelling argument to voters but to what degree has yet to be seen. The “Priorities” section found on the Acton for governor campaign website ^[13] is decently extensive but largely not very specific with one exception. The last page on the priorities tab labeled “ActOn Lowering Costs: Amy’s Affordability Agenda” ^[14] is impressively comprehensive and lists specific policies that an Acton administration would enact to address a wide range of affordability based issues faced by voters.

Strategy

Ohio’s workforce has a fairly heavy reliance on manufacturing, healthcare, and retail trade, with these three industries accounting for a third of all employment in the state ^[15]. All three of these industries have been damaged by Trump’s various reckless economic policies making them ripe topics to focus on while campaigning. Dr. Acton does a good job addressing this on her ActOn policy page but something like a workers’ union rally could be a strategy that really solidifies her stance optically. While her time running the Ohio Department of Public Health ended in controversy, her work there pre-lockdowns seems to have been quite successful so it could be useful to magnify those accomplishments to counter Ramaswamy’s attacks. 

Senate

The incumbent for the senate seat at issue this fall was appointed as the replacement for JD Vance after he was elected vice president. The rules for such an occurrence require that the newly appointed senator win a special election in order to serve out the remainder of the term. With polling looking more blue as we creep toward elections ^[16] and the disparity of name recognition between Vance’s replacement and presumed Democratic candidate Sherrod Brown ^[5], an increasing number of commentators see Ohio as an important stepping stone on the path back to the Senate. A recent DSCC press release ^[17] included the Ohio Senate special election among the highlighted Senate races that polling aggregators recently adjusted leftward.

Jon Husted - R

The uncontested Republican nominee, Jon Husted, appears very qualified for the role on paper. Husted earned a master’s degree in communication in the early 90s and worked as a football commentator for radio and TV until 1997, when he entered public service. He’s spent close to 30 years slowly working his way through more prestigious elected offices. Husted started as a state representative in 2001, briefly became a state senator in 2009, before he was elected the Ohio Secretary of State in 2011, finally he became the lieutenant governor in 2019, where he was until being appointed to Vice President Vance’s former Senate seat in 2025 ^[18]. Despite such a resume, Jon appears to have neglected his communications degree entirely, seeing as very little of this information would be gleaned just by reading his campaign website. The information on offer from the Jon Husted for Senate page consists of an extremely brief bio about his time in foster care and his adopted family before extensively flaunting his list of endorsements including a dramatic zoom on a Trump Truth Social post and spouting MAGA friendly buzzwords. The last spit in your face element of the website is the fact that it lacks an “issues” tab entirely meaning Jon Husted trusts that people will vote for him without even needing to lay out the policies he wants to accomplish ^[19]. Reading about this candidate left a bad taste in my mouth and I’m confident that the right communications strategy from his opponent can adequately portray that feeling to voters.

Sherrod Brown - D

Speaking of eminently qualified candidates, the Democratic frontrunner, Sherrod Brown intends to return to the Senate where he formerly served for nearly twenty years. During Brown’s time in Congress he chaired multiple committees and subcommittees. His degrees in Russian studies and education give him a broad range of expertise ^[20]. While polling largely shows tossups or a slight lead for Husted, the numbers are tightening and the combination of Brown’s name recognition and his reputation for bipartisan legislation shouldn't be underestimated ^[21]. In the interest of fairness, Sherrod Brown’s campaign site is very bare bones, which was rather disappointing to see. The website doesn't have separate tabs but the large section of text acts as a sort of amalgamation of the candidate bio and issues section. One could argue that given his extensive career in the Senate, voters can expect a continuation of his previous work but it would still be nice to see a more clear vision laid out ^[22]. 

Strategy

Sherrod Brown already has a history working with unions and blue collar workers, playing into this image and connecting it to the ongoing affordability problems functions as a solid messaging core to work around. Since Ohio has one of the largest Ukrainian populations in the country, it might be a strong choice to appeal to them regarding how much the Trump administration is helping Russia by lifting oil sanctions. This message might also be attractive to Ohio’s weapons manufacturing and defense industries if Brown can pitch that weapons produced in-state be included in a military aid package. Secondarily, Vance recounted a story in mid-April about how proud he was to cut off aid to Ukraine, linking this to Vance’s endorsement of Jon Husted, which could prove to be an effective attack. Lastly, depending on the movement of public approval of the Trump administration, prodding Husted on how closely he appears to be linking his political identity to them could be helpful in moderation.

Electoral Issue: Primary Hopping

A problem of growing salience this electoral cycle is a strategy I’ve been referring to as “primary hopping”. Primary hopping is a move that effectively allows a retiring incumbent to anoint an electoral successor by letting them bypass the normal primary process. The strategy involves an incumbent indicating their intention to retain their seat to dissuade candidates from running, only to drop out and allow their preferred candidate to sign up sometimes, only minutes before the deadline ^[23]. While actions have been taken in the past to circumvent primaries, such as the decision to hold a GOP convention for the 2021 Virginia gubernatorial election ^[24] instead of a normal primary, primary hopping appears to be the most blatant working method to date. So far, only two candidates have attempted this in the 2026 cycle likely, because it's still unclear whether the potential for voter backlash makes primary hopping a worthwhile strategy.

Senator Steve Daines and Kurt Alme

The most recent occurrence is that of now retiring incumbent Senator of Montana, Steve Daines. Despite his stated intention to run for his third term a month earlier, Daines withdrew his name from the ballot a mere two minutes before the filing deadline to be replaced by the U.S. Attorney for the District of Montana, Kurt Alme^[25]. While Daines claims he had been wrestling with the decision for months, the last minute maneuver leaves many with their eye on the race skeptical of his explanation ^[23]. Seemingly spurred by these events, former University of Montana President Seth Bodnar announced his intention to run in the general election as an independent, reportedly with the backing of former Democratic U.S. Senator Jon Tester ^[26]. A key part of Bodnar’s campaign seems to rely on the assumption that voters will be put off by the actions of Daines and Alme.

Representative Chuy Garcia and Patty Garcia

Unfortunately, this issue isn't one isolated to the republican party. Democratic Representative Chuy Garcia of Illinois pulled a similar stunt last November with his chief of staff, Patty Garcia (no relation to the congressman). In this instance, Garcia actually withdrew after the filing deadline closed, meaning he was able to ensure that his successor was the only candidate in the primary race. Similar to Senator Daines, Garcia claims that he had been working through the choice for a while, citing personal health issues and family matters as the reason for his late resignation but his organization’s effort to amass signatures for his chief of staff seems to betray his intentions ^[27]. Following these actions, the House voted 236-186 to reprimand Garcia; Rep. Marie Gluesenkamp Perez, who initiated the vote to much party outrage, defended her decision, saying that it’s important to call out “election subversion” by lawmakers on both sides of the aisle ^[28].

Potential corruption

While primary hopping is a legal, if scummy strategy, an aspect I didn’t see brought up in much of the reporting on the issue is the opportunity it creates for corruption. The occurrences seen so far appear to be nothing more than a means to pull a trusted ally into an incumbent’s seat or to avoid a primary winner who is less electable in a general election but buying seats seems to be a real risk if this strategy gains prevalence. In theory, the leader of an industry put at risk by ongoing legislation could identify an older congressperson and offer to pay them to install a candidate more amenable to the plights of your industry. I think this issue needs to be addressed legally before we see such a plan attempted.

Closer: Fundraiser Recap and Canvassing Plans

Before laying out our upcoming canvassing projects, we wanted to give a quick update on the April 10th fundraiser stream that we mentioned at the end of our last report. We want to thank everyone who participated for blowing away our expectations. The stream raised over $270,000, hitting every goal we prepared and even had participating streamers putting together stretch goals in real time! For those interested in more detailed reporting of the event, an in-depth article can be found

here. 

Thanks to the success of this event, our leadership is currently deciding which locations to use for our canvassing events. Assuming all goes to plan, we hope to begin operations around mid-June or early July and continue until the elections in November. We will be sure to relay any updates to our canvassing plans at the end of our June report next month. To see updates as they happen, be sure to keep an eye on our website or join our Discord, where discussions of next steps are happening every day.