March Midterms Report: Iowa

This March Digital Ground Game is kicking off our monthly Midterms Report by taking a look at one of the states that interests us most for 2026: Iowa.

The combination of growing disdain for MAGA’s policies and the quantity and type of elections in 2026 makes Iowa a compelling state to dedicate canvassing resources. Sentiment in Iowa is bleak on the Trump administration due to pressure on agriculture from the Trump tariffs. This does not just extend to the farmers themselves but to the local manufacturing and services sector that supports Iowa agriculture. Iowa is also interesting due to it not only having a contested Senate seat with Joini Ernst retiring but also a competitive gubernatorial race and three competitive House races for this year. As the 2026 Midterms nears Digital Ground Game is analyzing the best places to position our limited canvassing operations and Iowa makes a compelling case to be on the list.

Iowa’s Economy Under Trump 2.0

The core of Iowa’s economy is agriculture. Across the nation, agriculture has seen a massive markup in production costs while seeing a decline in sales. This has led to farmers entering 2026, after receiving over $11 Billion in aid, seeing increased losses and compounding layover debt from previous seasons. On top of that, tariffs have increased the costs of fertilizer, MAGA immigration policies have increased labor costs, and losses starting in Trump’s first term have caused compounding runaway debt ^[1]. Additionally, Tariffs caused domestic oversupply, particularly in rice and soybeans, leading to price reductions in U.S commodities causing a catastrophic situation forming in the Iowa farming industry. In 2025, Iowa had the second highest number of farm bankruptcies and is projected to have a 24% contraction in revenues in 2026 ^[2]. On a pure agricultural standpoint the economics look bleak, and the state and national slump on agriculture, mixed with tariffs, are beginning to cripple Iowa’s manufacturing industry.

Table 1: Table showing Iowa's decrease in manufactured imports and exports. Whirlpool’s manufacturing center in Iowa has been bleeding jobs since 2020 and there was net job loss in 2025^[3][4].

Due to Iowa’s location near the Great Lakes, far upstream on the Mississippi river, and close to the Chicago rail nexus; Iowa has not only become a hub for appliance manufacturing, but also a massive leader in agricultural equipment manufacturing. Due to the fall-off in agricultural revenue and the Trump tariffs, manufacturing exports are down 9.3% from 2025 and are projected to see a continued downward trend in 2026 ^[5]. Layoffs like what have happened at Whirlpool are happening across the state as manufacturing shrinks leading to a shrinking consumer pool that affects the State’s services industries ^[6]. The Trump admin has doubled down on his tariffs, which were shut down by the Supreme Court in February, by raising the global tariff from 10% to 15% using Section 122 of the Trade Act of 1974 as justification. This has led to farm groups in Iowa to publicly challenge the Trump admin on the tariff policy as they are dependent on imported fertilizer and other goods. It has escalated to the point where even the Iowa farmers union is calling for congressional oversight on Trump’s policies ^[7]. The downstream effects from Trump's policies and economic failures nationwide have bled into the broader Iowa economy making everyone feel it.

Iowa’s Competitive Races

The economic fallout in Iowa has created an electoral environment for 2026 that opens up previously locked in MAGA GOP seats. The most consequential is the Senate seat that Joini Ernst is vacating. Ernst was already suffering a low WAR score of -4.3, and, as she leaves, her GOP successor Ashley Hinson is left supporting the tariffs and other Trump policies that have caused so much anger in the Iowa electorate ^[8]. Challenging Hinson is a competitive batch of Democrats Zach Wahls, J.D. Scholten, and Jackie Norris leading the pack going into the primaries. Of those, Zach Wahls is currently the presumed favorite of the Democratic contenders as seen in various polls ^[9]. They have an easy avenue of attack using the possibility of flipping the balance in the senate to stop, and potentially roll back, Trump’s more destructive policies for Iowa. Iowa House races are also shaping up to be competitive as IA-1, IA-2, and IA-3 candidates are all having to vocally support the Trump Tariff policies and other practices that are so unpopular with their constituents. Democrat challengers benefit from attacking those practices and promising to be part of a coalition in the House and Senate to provide oversight to the Trump Admin.

The Iowa’s current Governor Kim Reynolds is not running for 2026 opening an incumbent free challenge to the gubernatorial this November. The race is looking like a showdown between Democratic candidate Rob Sand and the Republican candidate. The latter is still in the air as frontrunner Randy Feenstra if facing strong opposition by four challengers: MAGA sycophant Adam Steen, the libertarian leaning Eddie Andrews, Tea party remnant Zach Lahn, and evangelical head case Brad Sherman^[10]. The Republican primary is causing a heavy amount of discord and division in the Iowan Republican party, coupled with Trump not endorsing any of the candidates, only making this race harder. Rob Sand was one of the few Democrats to survive the 2022 red wave and has built a reputation for government transparency and anti-corruption practices during his time as auditor of the state. To capitalize on the situation in Iowa, he is running a campaign for an “Iowa that isn’t redder or bluer, but better and truer… For the next year, Rob will keep his foot on the gas and continue meeting Iowa voters where they are to talk about his plans to lower costs, strengthen public education, and help Iowans live better, healthier lives” ^[11]. Sands’ campaign draws a lot of similarities with Spanberger’s Virginia campaign, which is a very encouraging thought.

 Implications for the 2026 Midterms

Due to the economic hardships caused by Trump’s policies and the frustration of Iowa’s most influential demographics, Democratic candidates have a competitive edge in a state that was considered deep Trump country. This compounded by it having a Senate, a gubernatorial, and 3 House races this November makes it a “multiple birds with one stone” situation for Digital Ground Game’s canvassing program for 2026. As demonstrated in other states (California, Minnesota, Virginia and Georgia as examples), having a Governor that will stand up to Trump makes a huge difference and winning a majority in the Senate can allow actual oversight to occur. Not only would canvassing in Iowa touch a lot of races, it is also one of the most cost effective states to canvas in. Des Moines is centrally located and the heart of Iowa’s transportation infrastructure. On top of that, Iowa has one of the lowest rent costs in the country, paired with lowest national cost of living, making it a much easier task to fund a full time canvassing operation. The combination of low incumbency elections, elections in the Senate, House and Governorship, strong anger towards Trump’s GOP, and low operational costs make Iowa a strong contender for canvassing operations by Digital Ground Game.